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Guide to rate well in economic II

The economic stakes of the presidential candidates is of crucial importance for the future of the country. However, because of the complexity of factors involved is difficult to understand for those who are not specialists in the subject. Germain Laverde Forero *, finance expert, we illustrated with the analysis of the proposals of the two candidates who passed the second round, in terms of economic growth model and strategies to reduce inequality, to vote knowingly.

The commitment model

The growing interconnectedness of economies and financial markets has created a disturbing phenomenon: economic crises are becoming more frequent, deep and destructive.

What began as a speculative bubble in the housing market in the United States became one of the deepest crises ever documented in history. What began as a global financial system crisis became a global scale macroeconomic crisis that takes "surprise" to those formerly robust economies, or at least well enough subsidized by good neighbors.

In this scenario, in which international trade is reduced by more than 20% annually and in which the declared policy turns toward protectionism, Colombia faces a presidential election in which the economic model takes a preponderance particular.

not want to fall into the dull debate and employment taxes as the televised debates and have realized over and over again how some candidates want to upload, download them and others to have other creative options (and little clear) of funding. The origin of the funds is secondary, at least from a philosophical standpoint, over the use to be given to them.

The new president faces a scenario of slow and weak recovery in relations with neighbors and the correct stimulus to the productive apparatus become of paramount importance for growth.

Build 500,000 or 1,200,000 homes, create 500,000 or 2,500,000 jobs in the formal, unifying the tax rate and eliminate tax exemptions, incentives for agriculture, and solve the problem of land tenure, are the places common in those who have fallen candidates. This is where the real has been no proposals and selfishness is endemic to the national society regarding the important question is no longer the growth model and solution to the problem of inequality and becomes simply "To me, how much will it cost?"

The growth model should take advantage of national comparative advantages, unproductive land, the privileged geographical position, trade ties and economic interdependence with our neighbors to ensure both supply and demand primary products. The appreciation and low interest rates and we guarantee the automation price, now, from the we ensure the production base of raw materials sufficient for a technicalization useful. The central issue is to close the gap between real GDP and potential GDP, as installed capacity is being used well below its optimum.

The problem of inequality must be resolved from the entrance of private and public spending ever since. excessive government spending, to be made to subsidize poverty, resulting in greater inequality. If I give her lunch to all those who are hungry, I enrich the companies that produce food and fix the problem for eight hours. If, however, trains and give seed capital (instead of giving taxpayer money) to the less fortunate, empowers them income opportunities and reduce the gap between employers and employees.

out to vote before I ask you to think about these two issues, and submit the program of its candidate for these two litmus tests. Not a guarantee but it is minimal due diligence that comes with a conscience vote.

* Germain Forero Laverde is professional in Finance and International Relations. Master of Science in Finance Pompeu Fabra University. Research Professor Cipe - External University of Colombia.

germanf.forero @ uexternado.edu.co

Log Of Sprint Text Messages

Fallacies of continuity

The priority problem of Colombia is no longer the guerrillas, or Chavez, but the rampant corruption that had metastasized to the governments of Álvaro Uribe and threatens to end our precarious democracy to win Santos. Hence the imperative to elect a president whose flags are the legality and ethics.

"A lie repeated a thousand times becomes the truth" was the fundamental law made by Joseph Goebbels, Propaganda Minister of Nazi Germany, which allowed the Fuehrer trick the world's most developed town in the first half of the twentieth century to support the collective delusion of superiority of the Aryan race and the right to invade the rest of Europe. However, this premise of the political art of lying and mass psychological manipulation, should be added now in Colombia the incredible proposition that "a truth repeated a thousand times becomes in lost votes. "

I mean the obvious to say that we must reform the Colombian regressive tax system and raise taxes in order to obtain the necessary resources to achieve more development. United States collects about 35% of its GDP in taxes, Britain, 37% France, 45%, and countries like Denmark and Sweden, true examples of social progress, 50% and 51%. Colombia takes only about 18% of GDP in taxes. It is an undeniable fact that global economic development is only achieved with a high collection that allows the State, in addition to redistribute to invest in science and technology.

However, as Santos insists liar (an economist by profession) that during his government will not increase the "charges" taxes, business euphemism to disguise the fact that if you think increased, only to create others.

But the catalog of lies based on the continuity which the candidate wants to power does not end here. Therefore, Mockus recently had to react by signing a notarized affidavit that would not end with the Seine, Families in Action, the SISBEN, ICBF and public education to dispel accusations of Santos. False species released by his campaign (with the assistance of a disciple of the first order of Goebbels) to instill an unfounded fear in the electorate against his opponent are numerous. Let's see.

Mockus is stated that would be a setback in security for their proposals focused on respect for the law. The false dilemma between security and legality is the main trick used by the continuity to win this election. This fallacy collapses to verify that the Green candidate, who is a ruler who was able to exert a heavy hand when it should do but also trying to educate and persuade, has more results to show even Uribe's security. During his two terms, became nothing less than the capital more chaotic and insecure Latin American example to the world. For this reason, they call foreign universities to deliver lectures explaining their methods and social scientists as important as Habermas, Ostrom, Elster, Holmes, Przeworski and scientists from Harvard, Columbia, NYU, Yale and Oxford, his supporters and say that the country would have its advice to him winning the election (something unprecedented in the history of politics in the Third World).

On the other hand, false positives and the pikes of the DAS and the disaster showed that colmadamente conducting a security policy that does not respect the law.

Mockus is further contended that pose a risk to the delicate relations with Venezuela, when they really worrying for the country would be the eventual governance of someone whose "diplomatic strategy" so far has been to support a declared enmity since I was a columnist, continuing the line of "diplomacy" of Uribe in the field of international summits insult a mentally unstable head of state and armed to the teeth, which only dynamic increase the risk of war abroad. We must not exaggerate or decontextualise Mockus statement about his supposed "admiration" for Chavez, who turns out, is yes, a sensible strategy to reduce the temperature to the deteriorating bilateral relations with the neighboring country.

As if this were not enough, the candidate has publicly stated Santos fan, uncritically, the State of Israel, which historically has tarnished its fight against terrorism (legitimate ) with the murder (illegitimate) of thousands of unarmed Palestinian civilians.

Finally, it is false the argument that a president would Mockus suitable for a few years, "when the country is more developed." No law is not viable any kind of development, or economic or social, or political, or cultural, or scientific, or technological. Therefore, the priority problem of Colombia is no longer the guerrillas, or Chavez, but the rampant corruption that had metastasized to the governments of Álvaro Uribe and threatens to end our precarious democracy to win Santos. Hence the imperative to elect a president whose flags are the legality and ethics.

http://www.semana.com/noticias-opinion-on-line/falacias-del-continuismo/140122.aspx

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defeatism virus

defeatism is the tendency to fill a defeat pessimism. Its effects are disastrous and growing in both able to generalize an attitude of discouragement in the group that magnifies the scope a negative result, while frustrating the possibility of rectifying mistakes. In turn, defeatism can be powered either from inside and outside the group.

Al Green Party threatens the virus of defeatism after the first round result. From inside, some members are already talking about preparing to leave for the opposition and the 2011 local elections, in social networks is an air of disappointment and helplessness and columnists who write more from sadness to say that now reflect you need a miracle to win. From the outside, opportunistic statements The U.S. senators calling for the resignation to the second round of the movement, seek to demoralize. However, such a proposal is feasible as well as profoundly undemocratic, given that the town has not yet issued its final verdict, which will only be held on 20 June.

This general atmosphere of defeat - and triumphalism on the other side - be unfounded when the country is in front of a runoff election in which neither of the two finalists have any insured, any more than it was the eve of the first, and then just how amazing the result.

The first round is designed for candidates for president independently measured forces, their role is and why it necessarily raw dynamics of fragmentation. For its part, the second round seeks to give greater legitimacy to the winner, investing it with the support of a majority and there prevails a logic of unity: the moment of partnerships and green - like the continuity - need them to win. The Polo and extended a generous letter start a dialogue with the green program and Vargas Lleras, as a driver of much of the vote of opinion, has a unique opportunity to shake the reputation of Manzanillo and show the country that is in favor of democratic legality instead of being hands again by Uribe, who gave him back when he was independent and Antire. Regarding liberalism, would be a shame adhere to Santos after having pursued denounced the opposition and government corruption for years and so Pardo vacated and the community to vote for whoever above the interests of electoral barons.

For a seasoned observer can not be considered a failure more than three million votes green opinion, that is, made a campaign devoid of traditional machinery for a new party in the political landscape. The first round was won by the candidate as a loose continuity, and although it's not minimize this result, we must not turn into an insurmountable obstacle in the midst of an electoral environment so far characterized by volatility and indecision. There are still many voters to win - and may be lost - for both candidates, on Sunday for 54% of the country stated that it wants more of the same, voting for candidates other than the heir of Uribe, and 51% failed to do so. In addition, the second round is usually greater participation: in the last one was in the country, in 1998, increased the number of voters in more than 1,600,000. Then they are wrong who believe that the outcome of the first round is not may change substantially in the second.

Before blaming the polls for failing to predict the outcome, this should be done to ban the National Electoral Council held one week before the election. Polls are scanners that are constantly updated to be accurate. The repairs the suitability of samples for failing to include the rural population at present are nothing more than a hypothesis to be proven. Not that statistics - which is a science reliable - has failed but failed to deploy. Lifted the ban for the second round, the real debate should be forward looking is on its regulation.

is clear that the voting intentions of many voters changed in the seven days before the election and the two important questions to answer now is why this change occurred and if the means used to achieve this was legitimate and legal.

spoken of the "errors" Mockus in debates and statements, especially daring to announce something as basic as you would raise taxes on the wealthy to adjust one of the most regressive tax systems in the continent. And if the surge de Vargas and Petro thanks to its good performance also grabbed several votes, the abrupt change in trend is mainly attributed to other factors, most illegitimate and illegal, the front support of country's most powerful newspaper in its Sunday editorial Santos's candidacy; support the machinery of government blackmail by the beneficiaries of welfare programs as humble Families Action, the political undue involvement of the President (the eggs ), the illegal use of database SENA to proselytize on behalf of Santos; rumors against the Green candidate released in Social Security and the Federation of Municipalities ; harassment by police jurors election, vote-buying ; PIN votes ended secretly endorsed the campaign Santos, Christian votes mobilized by the unfounded fear of atheism Green candidate, the smear campaign against Mockus ahead with advice from one of the global gurus of electoral dirty tricks, the absence of primivotantes, the abstention remains high and largely led by the electoral infrastructure deficiencies that left many without a vote, and, of course, the partisan machinery once again proved to be equally well-oiled in both the urban and rural.

In short, to regain his electoral viability - until a week before the first round was a statistical fact - Greens should be eradicated defeatism in the ranks, mobilize part of the high percentage of abstainers, forging partnerships and empower the fundamental fact that the first round did not actually win the argument or nonexistent charisma of Santos, but fear the guerrillas, fraud ( mischief) and the shadow of Uribe.

happens sometimes in politics as in football where if you lose in the first half, there to show the grip in the second. The first half was won by a landslide and trap - blackmail and misleading to scare the electorate - the continuity. The second change can win if you set your lineup and leaves to pick up the scoring from the first minute.


http://www.semana.com/noticias-opinion-on- line/virus-del-derrotismo/139790.aspx